Vegas has over under at 7.5 wins for us. Fair?

It's nothing more than a representation of how people are, or are expected to, lay down their bets.

Bookies make their money by taking a percentage off of all bets, so their object is to reduce the risk of an unbalanced payout in which they may lose money if the wrong scenario plays out. So if more bets are coming in on over 7.5 than under, they'll raise it to 8.5 to encourage more bets on under.
 
I’d be tempted to take the under. It’s a new coach and coordinators with an aging mid-tier qb.
 
I’d be tempted to take the under. It’s a new coach and coordinators with an aging mid-tier qb.
"Aging mid-tier QB?"

Geno was the least of the Seahawks' problems last year. Throw Geno with an average DEF and a consistent OC and that's a strong playoff team.
 
Geno’s production went down 10 percent from 2022 to 2023 overall. He returned to the Pro Bowl, but this time, it was as an alternate. Now, he no longer has Pete and Waldron who coached his comeback. His oc just came from college.

Even if Geno has plateaued, it’s not enough.
 
It's nothing more than a representation of how people are, or are expected to, lay down their bets.

Bookies make their money by taking a percentage off of all bets, so their object is to reduce the risk of an unbalanced payout in which they may lose money if the wrong scenario plays out. So if more bets are coming in on over 7.5 than under, they'll raise it to 8.5 to encourage more bets on under.
Exactly. Thats why they are so good about originally laying lines.
 
Exactly. Thats why they are so good about originally laying lines.
Casual betting, including those who don't know a football from an odd-looking rock, will lay down a bet just for the hell of it, to bet on their team not really caring if they lose the bet. People who actually know their shit will stay away from betting altogether, knowing how unpredictable the result is this time of year and not wanting to waste their money.

Therefore, teams with a large fan base like the Cowboys are more likely to have casual bettors and will artificially raise/lower the point spread.
 
One argument against placing season predicting bets is that you won’t have the wisdom of time, but I partly disagree.

If in any game, a team is favored by 10 points or so, it’s better to bet on the underdog. Outside of money line, it’s almost always the safer option regardless of new info, like how pj Walker was going to play the 49ers. Of course that inflated the spread.

Similarly, the season predicting bets are not reckless if they take long term trends into account.
 
Geno’s production went down 10 percent from 2022 to 2023 overall. He returned to the Pro Bowl, but this time, it was as an alternate. Now, he no longer has Pete and Waldron who coached his comeback. His oc just came from college.

Even if Geno has plateaued, it’s not enough.
10% because he missed 2 games to injury.

I have zero faith in Waldron so I don't see a move to Grubb being a negative on Geno for 2024.

I would still put money on the over.
 
10% because he missed 2 games to injury.

I have zero faith in Waldron so I don't see a move to Grubb being a negative on Geno for 2024.

I would still put money on the over.

I respect your opinion. I just think the odds are that we do worse with the factors of a new oc from college plus a qb drafted in 2013.
 
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